Follow us on Twitter

Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 1, 2021

#Citibank bites the bullet on #Bitcoin


The biggest change with Bitcoin is the shift from it being primarily a retail-focused endeavor to something that looks attractive for institutional investors.

Monday, February 22, 2021

#Bitcoin’s roughly tripled in past 3 months, but its liquidity has deteriorated

Bitcoin Rally Faces Potential Test From Falling Market Liquidity - Bloomberg
#Bitcoin liquidity is only $10BN/day vs. $100BN for #Gold, making it much more prone to wild gyrations from relatively small orders. $BTCUSD

Bitcoin Rally Faces Potential Test From Falling Market Liquidity

Bitcoin rose as high as $58,350 on Sunday before retreating to about $56,200 as of 2:30 p.m. in Tokyo on Monday. The token has roughly tripled in the past three months but its liquidity has deteriorated, according to Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

"Market liquidity is currently much lower for Bitcoin than in gold or the S&P 500, which implies that even small flows can have a large price impact," he wrote in a note on Friday. 

Such a backdrop opens up the possibility of sharp moves higher or lower in the cryptocurrency depending on the prevailing ardor for digital assets. Of late, even some of the token's biggest backers appear surprised by its ascent. In a recent tweet, Elon Musk said Bitcoin prices "seem high," having earlier called it a "less dumb" version of cash.

Bitcoin trading volumes are around $10 billion daily for the spot and futures market combined, compared with an equivalent figure of $100 billion for gold, Panigirtzoglou wrote. That's consistent with "much lower liquidity in Bitcoin than in gold," he said.

Cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a strong start to the year, leaving other assets in the dust. The Bitcoin faithful argue corporate treasurers and institutional investors are new sources of demand and that the token can hedge risks such as faster inflation. Others see a prime example of speculative froth stoked by hedge funds and day traders in markets awash with stimulus.

"Bitcoin seems impervious to the barrage of fear, uncertainty and doubt waged against the industry," Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, wrote in an email.

Shares of Asian cryptocurrency stocks advanced Monday in the wake of Bitcoin's all-time high. One of the biggest movers was Japan's Monex Group Inc., which jumped as much as 16%.

Ether, the largest token after Bitcoin, also rallied over the weekend, topping $2,000 for the first time on Saturday. It's up about 150% year-to-date.

See the piece on Bloomberg here: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-22/bitcoin-rally-faces-potential-test-from-falling-market-liquidity?sref=VxHCy32x

Friday, February 5, 2021

#Silver’s recent surge is just the beginning of the coming #Commodities boom

The Digital economy will still need Metals & Minerals, says the FT, so get ready for a Commodities Boom!

"This is to be the year in which "the narrative of a greener government supported transformation of the social paradigm meets the reality of too little supply, inadequate infrastructure and a business world that has been so busy getting digital it forgot the physical world".

Great products don't just need to be hailed on social media, they need to be produced, shipped and delivered. That needs real-world commodities.

"where are we in the cycle now? At the beginning of the good bit (from an investor point of view at least.). The big metal miners effectively went on investment strike in 2014 — stopping almost all expansionary spending with the result that a large number of industrial metals were already in short supply even as we went into the pandemic last year."

In the post-Covid-19 era, it appears that no one will worry much about fiscal prudence. Instead, there is every chance that the fashion for the government to fill individuals' pockets will continue; that the endless promises of green transformation and infrastructure revolution will come good; and, crucially, that governments will prioritise high levels of employment over low levels of inflation. Think of the volume of cash that will spray around economies, and perhaps we are moving into something of a "Keynesian golden age" says Gavekal Research.

All this is wonderful for industrial metals and particularly wonderful for any materials that are at the core of green transformation. There is, for example, no replacement for copper in electrification. The more you think green, the more you need brown metal.

See the article by Merryn Somerset Webb, editor-in-chief of MoneyWeek (Twitter:  @MerrynSW ), on the FT here:

Silver surge could signal coming commodities boom

Monday, December 21, 2020

#Commodities Back In Play as Investors Get Ready for Next Boom


“It’s highly probable that a great many investors will look back on 2020 and wonder how they missed these signs of a new commodity bull market.”
  • Prices have surged to highest in more than six years
  • Inflation fears are drawing investors back to resources sector

For the best part of a decade, commodities have been deeply out of fashion. Now, as investors scour the market for the great reflation play, they’re hot again.

Investing luminaries from Point72 to Pimco are calling for commodity prices to move higher. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the bellwether of Wall Street, is predicting a new commodity bull market to rival the China-driven boom of the 2000s and the oil price spikes of the 1970s.

“We very much believe that the fundamentals are now in place for a new, structural, bull market to begin,” said Robert Howell, senior research strategist at Gresham Investment Management LLC, the commodities-focused unit of Nuveen with $5.8 billion in assets in the sector. “In the years to come, it’s highly probable that a great many investors will look back on 2020 and wonder how they missed these signs of a new commodity bull market.” 


________________________

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

#COMEX’s #Gold & #Silver Trade Data Doesn’t Add Up!

COMEX Gold Futures
"How did you go bankrupt?"
Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

     Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises 

Is COMEX Data Rigged?

— We all know the answer to that...

It now seems the mother of all short squeezes may finally be near, as more and more investors take Physical Delivery of Gold, rather than roll over their Futures Contracts... 

"Just like a fear of cash shortages would cause a run on the banking system, fears of physical precious metals shortages could cause a run on whatever is left in the COMEX warehouses."

"While the COMEX claims there is enough gold in registered to satisfy current deliveries, we have started to see some anomalies in the data which potentially paint a different picture."

Interesting piece on how the fudging of the numbers on the COMEX is going to come around and bite them in the …, sooner rather than later, as more and more people are taking delivery of physical metal vs. rolling over their paper contracts...  this has been going on for years, but the potential short squeeze is becoming more glaring as the pumping of liquidity, without any real backing, goes into overdrive

"while the COMEX allows as many paper derivative contracts to be placed as bets on the market price, we only have a finite amount of the real metals available on the market at any given time. Those cannot be printed up at the push of a button on a computer like the paper contracts can be. This has two effects on the market.

"First, when the physical deliveries are miscounted, the paper contract derivative trades overstate short term speculative interest in the metals versus those willing to take ownership. Secondly, and probably more importantly, it overstates the amount of physical metals available for delivery on the futures market for those that want to take delivery. It basically amounts to fraud, much as if your bank claimed to have enough cash for your deposit, and then notified you when you showed up to the bank that you would have to wait 2-3 months to get your cash."!!! 

Thursday, August 27, 2020

#Gold Needs to "Glow Up" says @Sprott

A Message from the CEO: Gold Needs to "Glow Up"
Clear Outperformance of #Gold since 2000 vs. $SPX, Bonds & $USD

Gold Needs to "Glow Up"

As of August 24, gold bullion1 has gained 27.13% YTD and 39.74% YOY. Gold mining equities (SGDM)2 are up 38.85% YTD and 61.54% YOY. This compares to 7.55% YTD and 11.96% YOY returns for the S&P 500 TR Index.Silver has posted outsized gains, climbing 49.03% YTD and 50.00% YOY.

Gold is a Mandatory Portfolio Asset

Now that gold has powered over $2,000, it's an excellent time to take stock of what has been accomplished by the monetary metal and what may lie next. As for my Gen-Z "Glow Up" reference (and more below), conversations with my 16-year-old daughter are a constant reminder that I, too, like the gold market, need some updating and modernization.   

Most importantly, in our view, it has been established as a baseline that a diversified asset portfolio must include an allocation to gold. We believe this statement is justified by the fact that gold is now the only monetary asset that is priced by a liquid-free market and not directly correlated and partially controlled by central bank (i.e., government) policies and market interventions.

Without once again judging the merits of the exceptional monetary debauchery and fiscal stimuli of 2020, and regardless of an investor's views on credit and equity market valuations or prospects for inflation, there is no other liquid asset which accomplishes what gold does in the way of portfolio insurance and purchasing power protection.

Thursday, August 20, 2020

#Gold is the Natural Alternative Currency Amid Massive Debasement Globally by Central Banks

Gold to Gain on Massive Currency Debasement, SkyBridge Says - Bloomberg
Gold seen rising amid `massive currency debasement,' SkyBridge's Gayeski says
Gold to Gain on Massive Currency Debasement, SkyBridge Says

Gold will extend its record-setting rally on "massive currency debasement" and expectations for further stimulus, according to SkyBridge Capital, which recently added exposure to the metal after exiting in 2011.

"When you think of currency debasement the question is, what is the dollar going to weaken against, and when you look around the globe, it's hard to be excited about alternative currencies," said Troy Gayeski, co-chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager, listing the euro, yuan and emerging-market monies. "So, gold is obviously a natural alternative currency." 

The precious metal surged to a record well above $2,000 an ounce earlier this month -- although prices have stumbled since then -- as central banks including the Federal Reserve unleashed vast stimulus to support economies hurt by the coronavirus pandemic. That's spurred bets that paper currencies will lose their value as money supply jumps. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. calls gold the currency of last resort and has forecast more gains.

Gold is "fairly rich versus oil or other real commodities, but it hasn't appreciated nearly as much as money-supply growth since its previous peak in September of 2011," Gayeski said in an interview. "It wouldn't surprise us if by the end of next year, it's around the $2,100-to-$2,200 range."

Spot gold hit an all-time high of $2,075.47 an ounce on Aug. 7 as the dollar weakened and real interest rates fell well below zero. On Thursday it climbed 0.4% to $1,936, up almost 28% this year. Prices eased midweek after minutes from the Fed showed it edging away from a step that would underscore a commitment to an extended period of ultra-loose policy.

Ultimately, the driver for gold is "you have massive currency debasement, particularly in the U.S.," Gayeski said.

SkyBridge, which manages $7.35 billion, has about 3% exposure to gold, with the majority of positions taken in the past two months. The fund-of-funds manager's primary exposures are to U.S. cash-flow-generative strategies backed by tangible assets, including residential mortgage-backed securities.

While the latest round of fiscal stimulus talks haven't yet yielded a deal, the Fed has already swelled its balance sheet by about $2.8 trillion this year, with Goldman cautioning that U.S. policy is triggering debasement fears.

The Fed will likely ramp up asset purchases, and there's more fiscal stimulus coming too, according to Gayeski. "All those things argue for a continued bull market in gold, again driven principally by money-supply growth and dollar debasement as opposed to real inflation fears," he said. "Furthermore, expect continued asset inflation long before real inflation ever shows up."

See the article on Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-20/gold-will-gain-on-massive-currency-debasement-skybridge-says?

Related coverage and commentary:


https://bit.ly/PangeaBlog 


Wednesday, August 12, 2020

#Gold seeming to offer something for everyone, is yet another unintended result of the exceptional liquidity from central banks in their quest to manipulate the functioning of markets

Gold's evolution into a 'must-have' asset is storing up trouble
That gold is seen to offer something for everyone is yet another unintended result of the exceptional involvement of central banks in the functioning of markets
© Leonhard Foeger/Reuters 
After rising 17 per cent in the first half of the year, gold prices surged to record highs before retreating on Tuesday to just below $2,000. In the process, investors went from treating gold as a short-term momentum trade to seeing it more as a legitimate standalone option in long-term portfolios. You need only look at real yields on government bonds after adjusting for inflation to see why so many investors are buying gold as a long-term option.

Gold's evolution into a 'must-have' asset is storing up trouble

Price rise is being driven by investors adding the metal to long-term portfolios

The writer is Allianz's chief economic adviser and president-elect of Queens' College, University of Cambridge

Until recently, the rapid rise in the price of gold had more to do with opportunistic financial trading than any larger structural investment theme, let alone a drop in physical supply or an increase in industrial use.

Now, the metal is seen to offer something for everyone. That is yet another unintended result in a lengthening list of the exceptional involvement of central banks in the functioning of markets. Their expanded interventions to counteract the effects of the pandemic have pleased many now but will create problems for the central banks and the economy at large, if a sharp and lasting economic recovery continues to elude us.

After rising 17 per cent in the first half of the year, gold prices surged to record highs before retreating on Tuesday to just below $2,000. In the process, investors went from treating gold as a short-term momentum trade to seeing it more as a legitimate standalone option in long-term portfolios. You need only look at real yields on government bonds after adjusting for inflation to see why so many investors are buying gold as a long-term option.

Contrary to what most textbooks would suggest, the recent drop in nominal yields has coincided with a rise in inflationary expectations. This makes gold a more attractive substitute for government bonds in two ways. Investors who opt for gold forgo less income than they would if bond yields were higher. They also hedge against what would be a dramatic loss in the value of those bonds, should central banks stop trying to keep interest rates low by flooring official rates and buying massive amounts of market securities.

Gold is also proving compelling for other reasons, collecting quite an unlikely cast of backers in addition to the usual bugs who worry about currency debasement and geopolitical shocks. Some believe it will protect investors against further depreciation of the US dollar; others want it as a hedge against a global economic depression and a collapse in stock markets that, already, are stunningly decoupled from corporate and economic realities. Today's gold camp even manages to attract those looking to protect against competing outcomes: deflation and inflation. 

Gold is not the only asset to have developed this multiple and seemingly bipolar personality. Big Tech stocks have also been seen as offering everything to everybody. They promise growth based on the shift from physical to virtual activities in the pandemic, but also downside protection because they have massive cash holdings, low debt and positive cash-flow generation. The collapse in nominal yields on government and safe corporate bonds is also leading some investors to ask whether non-investment grade "junk" bonds can be a safe place to park their money.

Underpinning these contradictory developments is investor faith that central banks will protect them from big losses by continuing to intervene whenever markets slide. Gold is evolving into a "must-have" asset. That drives the price upwards as the pool of potential buyers shifts from a small group of quirky bugs to the much larger pool of investors seeking risk mitigation. Like many sudden structural shifts, it is likely to involve an initial price overshoot.

Think of this as part of a broader shifting baseline. Investors are treating an ever growing number of traditionally risky assets as low risk, or even hedges against risk. In the short term, this pushes prices higher, reinforcing the attitude change and lulling politicians and central bankers into believing that the market cycle has been conquered. But they are likely to prove as wrong as those who, before the 2008 financial crisis, erroneously believed they had vanquished the business cycle.

Monday, August 10, 2020

What’s with #Gold Backwardation? @FTAlphaville’s @IzaKaminska tackles the question

"when regular money rates become negative, however, gold's zero yielding quality is no longer construed as a vice but rather a feature. In such circumstances, holding cash becomes costly while holding gold becomes the opportunity. And it's this feature which triggers not just demand for new sources of gold, but also a backwardation that incentivises those who have previously stashed gold to sell out at a profit."

Read the whole piece here: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/08/05/1596631139000/What-s-with-gold-backwardation-/


Bit.ly/PangeaBlog
Bit.ly/PangeaFeeds


Tuesday, July 28, 2020

.@GoldmanSachs Warns US #Dollar's Role Is at Risk as #Gold Prices Surge - Bloomberg

#Gold's record-breaking rally highlights growing concern over the world economy.

Goldman raised its 12-month forecast for gold to $2300 an ounce from $2000 an ounce previously. That compares with a value of around $1950 currently.

The bank sees U.S. real interest rates continuing to drift lower, boosting gold further.


________________________

Monday, June 22, 2020

How Much Cash Are The Global Diversified Miners Returning to Shareholders? $BHP $RIO $AAL $VALE $S32



Global Mining Research


Wednesday, June 3, 2020

#Gold & #Silver Technical Analysis $GLD

Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 26th, 2020. Source: Tradingview

Gold in US-Dollar, weekly chart as of May 26th, 2020. Source: Tradingview

Technical Analysis: Gold in US-Dollars


On the weekly chart, gold bulls continue to strive to finally leave the uptrend channel that began in August 2018 behind them. So far, they have not yet succeeded in doing so. Should the bulls now run out of steam or do need a breather, a quick pullback towards the mid of the trend channel would be very likely. However, despite weeks of consolidation at a high levels, there is still no sign of exhaustion. But one could speak of a "dwindling bullish momentum".

It is noticeable that since the beginning of the year gold has been moving primarily in the zone between the 61.8% fibonacci retracements (US$1,586) and the 78.6% fibonacci retracements (US$1,733). These fibonacci retracements relate to the major correction in the gold market when prices fell from US$1,920 down to US$1,045 between 2011 and 2015. Since the final low in December 2015, the bulls have now recovered 61.8% and 78.6% of the lost distance.

Hence, the zone between US$1,586 and US$1,733 is the last place of refuge for the gold bears. If this last bastion can be sustainably conquered, the way to the all-time high at US$1,920 and prices above US$2,000 would be clear. From this perspective alone, the confusing back and forth over the last few weeks is therefore not surprising. At the same time the bears obviously do not (yet) have enough strength to wrest larger space from the bulls here.

Weekly chart is overbought and could take quite some time until being oversold

However, the stochastic oscillator does not look good on the weekly chart. Both lines are still bullishly embedded above 80, but as soon as the momentum starts to turn, the strongly overbought position immediately will kick in and deliver a sell-signal. In that case a multi-weeks to multi-months corrective phase becomes extremely likely. This is in line with our title Gold – Patience is A Virtue.

All in all, gold prices have been treading water for weeks now and seem to be slightly stuck above US$1,700. However, a trend reversal has not happened. Ideally, the slightly disjointed picture will dissolve with a healthy but overall manageable pullback in the summer months. Alternatively this pullback is already happening….

Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 26th, 2020. Source: Tradingview, Patience Is A Virtue

Gold in US-Dollar, daily chart as of May 26th, 2020. Source: Tradingview

On the daily chart, the bulls managed to break out of the five-week consolidation triangle on May 14. With the following spike towards US$1,765 they immediately made it clear who is in charge. In the meantime, however, this actually bullish breakout has already come to an end without any sustained gains, as prices have been falling rather rapidly from US$1,765 down to US$1,698.

Now bulls will have to answer with a bounce and a compelling recovery. However, prices above US$1,730/1,735 might already cause difficulties. Nevertheless, the chances of another wave up into the range between US$1,745 and US$1,765 are pretty good. Especially as the stochastic oscillator he has cooled down considerably on the daily chart and move in the neutral zone. This setup would once again provide enough room for another bullish run.

Silver is still in rally mode and will play more catch up rather soon

Furthermore, the silver price, which had just begun to move two weeks ago, does not appear to have reached the end of its rally yet. Rather, silver could pull the price of gold up again for the next few weeks.

In summary, the daily chart is neutral after weeks of consolidation. Similar to last spring and last autumn, gold prices managed to work off the heavily overbought situation without major losses but only with mild declines. Thus, at least in the short term, there is once again the chance of a rise towards the highs of US$1,765 on the chart. Even a new high at US$1,800 can not be ruled out.



________________________

Thursday, May 28, 2020

.@Incrementum just published the In #Gold We Trust Report, the gold standard in gold research @IGWTReport

Incrementum just published the In Gold We Trust Report, the gold standard in gold research. 

Key Takeaways

Monetary policy normalization has failed

We had formulated the failure of monetary policy normalization as the most likely scenario in our four-year forecast in the In Gold We Trust report 2017. Our gold price target of > USD 1,800 for January 2021 for this scenario is within reach.

The coronavirus is the accelerant of the overdue recession

The debt-driven expansion in the US has been cooling off since the end of 2018. Measured in gold, the US equity market reached its peak more than 18 months ago. The coronavirus and the reactions to it act as a massive accelerant.

Debt-bearing capacity is reaching its limits

The interventions resulting from the pandemic risk are overstretching the debt sustainability of many countries. Government bonds will increasingly be called into question as a safe haven. Gold could take on this role.

Central banks are in a quandary when it comes to combating inflation in the future

Due to overindebtedness, it will not be possible to combat nascent inflation risks with substantial interest rate increases. In the medium-term inflationary environment, silver and mining stocks will also be successful alongside gold.

Dawn of a new monetary world order

In the decade that has just begun, trend-setting monetary and geopolitical upheavals are to be expected. Gold will once again play an important role in the new monetary world order as a stateless reserve currency.

New gold all-time highs are only a matter of time

The question is not whether the gold price will reach new all-time highs, but how high these will be. We are convinced that gold will prove to be a profitable investment over the course of this decade and will provide stability and security in any portfolio.



________________________
Bit.ly/PangeaBlog
Bit.ly/PangeaFeeds


Monday, May 25, 2020

The #Gold-en Question: What’s Happened To #Money Since 1971?


It's no coincidence that ever since the world adopted Fiat Currencies, the value of Money has Evaporated as Debt has Proliferated throughout the World through Indiscriminate Money Printing and Uncontrolled Financial Derivatives. The great winners have been those that have been able to play the "Financialization" Game. 

Yet now, as the Monetary Levels and Liabilities get further and further from the Underlying Reality, the System is showing growing Signs of Strain and Overextendedness. This will lead undoubtedly lead more and more investors towards UNFORGEABLE ASSETS. 



"I don't believe we shall ever have a good money again before we take the thing out of the hands of government, that is, we can't take it violently out of the hands of government, all we can do is by some sly roundabout way introduce something that they can't stop." – F.A. Hayek 1984

👆 ⬆️👆 This is incredible! ðŸ‘† ⬆️👆

See all the charts on WTF Happened In 1971? https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

______________________
bit.ly/PangeaBlog
bit.ly/PangeaFeeds


Thursday, April 30, 2020

#Silver miners hit hardest-#Gold co's the least impacted-by #CoronaVirus lockdowns



Since mid-March, the response of governments worldwide to the covid-19 pandemic has led to disrupted mining activities across the globe. 

A total of 32 countries have passed partial or complete lockdown orders, leading to the temporary suspension of activities at over 1,600 mines as of April 3, though that number has since dropped down to 729 as restrictions begin to ease in certain areas, analysts at GlobalData report.

The exempted mines are, however, still operating with reduced numbers of workers to minimize the potential spread of the virus, which is causing a slow return for an industry that has already seen production hit by restrictions.

Among the mining activities affected by covid-19, silver production has been the biggest victim, with nearly 66% of the world's annual output still on hold.