"where are we in the cycle now? At the beginning of the good bit (from an investor point of view at least.). The big metal miners effectively went on investment strike in 2014 — stopping almost all expansionary spending with the result that a large number of industrial metals were already in short supply even as we went into the pandemic last year."
In the post-Covid-19 era, it appears that no one will worry much about fiscal prudence. Instead, there is every chance that the fashion for the government to fill individuals' pockets will continue; that the endless promises of green transformation and infrastructure revolution will come good; and, crucially, that governments will prioritise high levels of employment over low levels of inflation. Think of the volume of cash that will spray around economies, and perhaps we are moving into something of a "Keynesian golden age" says Gavekal Research.
All this is wonderful for industrial metals and particularly wonderful for any materials that are at the core of green transformation. There is, for example, no replacement for copper in electrification. The more you think green, the more you need brown metal.
See the article by Merryn Somerset Webb, editor-in-chief of MoneyWeek (Twitter: @MerrynSW ), on the FT here:
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