Nigeria's economy will soon overtake South Africa's: Africa’s big shots | The Economist

The Economist reports that a revision in Nigeria's statistics could well mean an increase of 60% in GDP

Nigeria is about to deliver another blow to South African pride. Its
statistics office will soon publish long-delayed revisions to its
estimate of the size of the economy. As the score stands now, Nigeria is
second to South Africa as the continent’s economic big shot. Its GDP at
current prices was $292 billion last year, according to the IMF,
compared with $354 billion for South Africa’s. But that will change.
Bigwigs in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, have dropped heavy hints that
revised figures will put Nigeria comfortably into first place. Charlie
Robertson, chief economist of Renaissance Capital, said that Nigeria’s
GDP figure could be revised up by as much as 60%.
Why such a big
upgrade? An economy’s growth rate in inflation-adjusted terms is
typically measured by reference to prices in a base year. In Nigeria the
reference year is 1990; real GDP for subsequent years is expressed as
if prices had remained constant since then. To tot up an estimate of GDP
growth, its number-crunchers add together growth estimates from each
sector of the economy, ie, farming, manufacturing, construction and
services. The weight they give to each part depends on its importance to
the economy in the base year.
But as time passes those weights
become less relevant. A snapshot of the economy in 1990 gives little or
no weight to mobile telephony or other new and fast-growing industries.

See the whole article here: Nigeria's economy will soon overtake South Africa's: Africa’s big shots | The Economist

 

Africa's road-building frenzy will transform continent @NewScientist

average road density on the continent is 204 kilometres of road per 1000 square kilometres of land area – only a quarter of which is paved. In contrast, the world average is 944 kilometres per 1000 square kilometres with more than half paved

The plan is to expand the existing, 10,000 kilometre-long network of major roads to between 60,000 and 100,000 km – either by upgrading existing poor roads or building new ones.

Expanding and upgrading Africa's sparse highway network could pull people out of poverty – and pose environmental challenges

AFRICA is embarking on a road-building spree. Ahead of the pack are mining organisations, largely funded by China, which have flooded into the continent over the last decade and need ways to transport materials. But also afoot is a larger, pan-African effort to upgrade and expand the continent's highway network, as well as building many more smaller connecting roads.
The result will be a vast continental transformation with the potential to improve access to education and healthcare – and connect Africans to each other, enabling commerce. It's not all good news, however. The roads, especially those built to service mines, could disrupt large tracts of natural habitat. "If you build the roads, there are environmental costs, but if you don't, there are developmental costs," says Jeff Sayer of James Cook University in Cairns, Australia.
The need for infrastructural change is undeniable. Compared with the world average, Africa's existing road network is sparse and poorly maintained. According to a report for the World Bank, average road density on the continent is 204 kilometres of road per 1000 square kilometres of land area – only a quarter of which is paved. In contrast, the world average is 944 kilometres per 1000 square kilometres with more than half paved. This is partly due to Africa's vast area, but its roads look sparse even when viewed by population (see diagram).
Enter the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa, or PIDA, funded mainly by African governments, plus international banks, governments and funding agencies. It was launched in 2010 and is due for completion in 2040. Transport makes up 30 per cent of the current budget, and roads are a big part of this.
The plan is to expand the existing, 10,000 kilometre-long network of major roads to between 60,000 and 100,000 km – either by upgrading existing poor roads or building new ones. The result would be nine arteries, some hugging Africa's entire coastline, while others strategically criss-cross the continent. Some 250,000 km of smaller roads will be built or upgraded to connect smaller cities to the main arteries, plus another 70,000 km to plug in rural areas.
What will this achieve? PIDA's goal is to boost trade, spark growth and create jobs. A recent study in Sub-Saharan Africa by the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic near Johannesburg, South Africa, shows how roads can do this. If farmers lived four hours travel time from a city with a population of 100,000, their crop output reached 45 per cent of what was possible because they could easily access tools and supplies such as fertilisers. For farmers eight hours away, the yields collapsed to just 5 per cent. "It's almost incontestable that roads will get them out of that poverty," says Sayer. People certainly want them. "Pretty much all rural communities in Africa will put improved roads at the top of their wish lists," he adds.
There are also likely to be benefits to education. Villages of the Congo basin best served by roads scored highest on a scale grading the effectiveness of education from 5 (best) to 1, according to surveys carried out by Sayer and his colleagues between 2006 and 2009. For example, the scores were 4 or above for each year in the Republic of the Congo, which, aided by investment in education by the forestry company, Congolaise Industrielle des Bois, is relatively well-served by roads. But in the Central African Republic, the worst connected of the countries, they never exceeded 1.3 (Tropical Conservation Science, vol 3, p 262). Sayer adds that healthcare also tends to improve with road-building – perhaps because it is easier to reach medicine and doctors.
But roads bring risks, too, as studies of the road-building already taking place by mining companies can reveal.
In a paper published last month, Sayer and colleagues show that of 4151 known sites of mineral deposits in resource-rich Central Africa, a quarter are in areas of irreplaceable natural habitat, most currently unprotected (Conservation Letters, doi.org/qrk). "In Tanzania, a proposed road to the gold-fields in the Lake Victoria area could bisect the Serengeti National Park and disrupt one of the world's greatest surviving terrestrial wildlife migrations," they report.
Roads can also inflict damage indirectly, by the activities they enable. The Mount Nimba biosphere reserve in the Republic of Guinea, home to chimpanzees that use stone tools and a unique otter shrew (Micropotamogale lamottei), was downsized by 1550 hectares to allow iron-ore prospecting. Likewise, Zambia downgraded the protection status of 19 national parks to permit mining rights.
Bill Laurance, also at James Cook University, is pessimistic about the environmental outcomes of what he describes as a "tsunami" of mining and road-building. "There's a real possibility this could provoke an environmental crisis," he says.
With different goals, the PIDA-enabled roads may be more respectful of the environment than those built to enable mining. PIDA documents acknowledge the need to minimise the environmental impact of transport infrastructure and services.
Roads will affect the environment, says Sayer, but they are vital nonetheless. "Go to any remote village in Africa, they want health and education for their kids and jobs for themselves," he says. "We can't stay in the way of that."

This article appeared in print under the headline "Africa's road to riches"

Where hackers meet the highway

Expanding the network of roads in Africa might be crucial for transporting fertiliser and medicine (see main story), but a host of programmers and engineers hope cellphones, the internet and even drones can help improve education, healthcare and communication in areas the roads won't reach.
"Building roads is part of the solution to poverty, but we need to improve telecommunications as well," says Daniel Stern, founder of UConnect, which aims to use IT to advance education in Uganda, and developer of a low-cost, solar-powered server Pelican Pi.
Stern points out that school textbooks and educational materials are now available through sites such as Khan Academy to children with cheap computers, tablets or cellphones. "We're bringing school to them, rather than the other way round," he says.
Healthcare is also possible over the internet. By accessing sites such as Hesperian health guides or Hifa2015, it's possible for villagers to view videos showing how to safely deliver babies, for example. "E-health is definitely the way to go," says Stern. For farmers, there are services to keep tabs on markets, monitor the weather and obtain finance without having to trek long distances to the nearest town.
Perhaps the most blue-sky idea of all is Matternet, which aims to use drones to deliver supplies to people without access to reliable roads.

Africa's road-building frenzy will transform continent - tech - 10 January 2014 - New Scientist

MasterMetals: #Gold – Swiss central banks reports £10.1bn loss in value SP Angel - Mining / Commodities

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