Shift out of #Dollars by #Russia, #China, etc. has been going on for some time—It’s just now that we’re actually beginning to see it.

It happens in stealth mode, and then all of a sudden the "paradigm shift" , to quote Dalio, has occurred. The shift out of dollars by Russia, China and others has been going on for some time. It's just now that we are actually beginning to see it. 

While the EURO has been their Preferred currency for trading when they can't use their own, Gold has been their target in terms of diversifying their reserves:

Today Bloomberg published this:

Putin's Pledge to Ditch the Dollar Is Slowly Becoming a Reality  

The share of euros in Russian exports increased for a fourth straight quarter at the expense of the U.S. currency, according to central bank data. The common currency has almost overtaken the dollar in trade with the European Union and China and trade in rubles with India surged. The dollar's share in import transactions remained unchanged at about a third.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-04/putin-s-pledge-to-ditch-the-dollar-is-slowly-becoming-a-reality

See these previous blog posts on the subject: 

- #Russia's Total #Gold Reserves Top $100 Billion As Central Banks Keep on Adding Ounces https://blogpangea.blogspot.com/2019/07/russias-total-gold-reserves-top-100.html; 

also this re: China:

As #Gold surged to highest level in nearly 6 years, #China's been buying gold while selling US Treasuries https://mastermetalsblog.blogspot.com/2019/06/as-gold-surged-to-highest-level-in.html...

#Russia’s Total #Gold Reserves Top $100 Billion As Central Banks Keep on Adding Ounces -Kitco News

Moscow has been actively buying up gold this year, adding more than 96 tonnes since the beginning of 2019.

Russia bought 200,000 in May, 550,000 ounces in April, 600,000 ounces in March, one million ounces in February, and 200,000 ounces in January.

During the last decade, Russia's gold reserves have gone from 2% to 19% as of the end of 2018 Q4, according to the World Gold Council's data.

The World Gold Council (WGC) has been pointing to an overarching trend towards gold, noting that central banks around the world purchased a total of 651.5 tonnes of gold last year — the largest amount since 1971.

See the full article from Kitco News here: https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-07-23/Russia-s-Total-Gold-Reserves-Top-100-Billion-As-Central-Bank-Adds-Another-600K-Ounces-In-June.html

Thread by @RaoulGMI: "Big, important thread alert: There is a lot going on in Europe that feels like it's coming to a head soon... probably by the end of the summer"

Thread by @RaoulGMI: "Big, important thread alert: There is a lot going on in Europe that feels like it's coming to a head soon... probably by the end of the summer"

https://twitter.com/raoulgmi/status/1147878009870983169?s=21

Big, important thread alert:

There is a lot going on in Europe that feels like it's coming to a head soon... probably by the end of the summer. The EU economy is in mild recession...

But it is unlikely to deteriorate further for a month or two until the CESI up-cycle finishes around the end of the summer

But inflation expectation are collapsing (5yr shown) and show no signs of abating..

And we know that the ECB is only driven by ONE mandate - inflation. Therefore, they HAVE TO ease policy. Problem is that they have few levers to pull, so first it'll be lower rates. 2 yrs can go back to below -1%....

And bund yields will keep falling too...using a regression channel, it would suggest that -1.6% is the objective...

That's all well and good, but it's killing the banks, which are correlated with falling yields...(cause vs effect? Im not sure. Probably a bit of both). Chart is of EU Banks sector vs 10 yr bunds...

We are all well aware that $DB is a total shit show and is something I have been talking about for the last few years. The news out this weekend of a restructuring and loss of 20,000 jobs simply can not be achieved fast enough and all the senior leaders are bolting for the exits

They've tried mergers. Fail. They are trying bad bank. Not sure it will get done yet. And now they are trying restructuring. Too late/no time. Meanwhile, the ECB will push yields lower, putting $DB closer to the End Game. How else can they fight a recession? They cant use fiscal

But, this is NOT a DB problem, it is a STRUCTURAL EU/Swiss problem, on a scale not understood by most. UBS is about to break support and head to zero...

Credit Suisse is arguably worse...that support is the life/death line.

And in France, Soc Gen is also in free fall, with its own Cliff of Death approaching...

In Spain, all the banks look terrible, as I have been shouting from the roof tops for a while. BBVA is right at the Cliff of Death

And even Barclays in the UK looks bad too

So, the knock on effects are all lining up to push one bank after another of the Cliff of Death...and there ain't a thing the ECB can do about it, as they have only one mandate - inflation. They HAVE TO cut rates. And this is why Christine Lagarde has been brought in...

The ECB is going to need to become political. It is going to have to rescue an EU-wide banking system and put the banks into state hands and buy the extra gov debt and they are going to need to force fiscal reforms and massive fiscal stimulus. They will use the situation to force

through tighter EU fiscal consolidation, maybe even leaving some nations behind. Lagarde is perfect for this. It's what the IMF does. She is also a lawyer and a politician. The problem is, this stuff takes time. The ECB will buy any credit instrument to avoid capital

markets seizing up but shareholders are going to sense an equity wipeout over the debt holders, so equities bear the brunt of it (and bunds go more negative). The dollar will get bid as the $ funding crisis can not easily be solved by the ECB and lending at the margin tightens

And a strong dollar would destroy the banks and the global economy. It's all very circular and there are very few circuit breakers. Throw in heightened trade wars between EU/US (highly likely) and China/EU/US and you have a very big issue. And my problem with all of this

It's that the probability is much much higher than I'd like. And that is the reason to own bonds, dollars, bitcoin and gold. The former two are the beneficiaries of current needs, and the latter two are the high-gamma options on this escalating into an extreme policy event.

This all needs to be watched very closely. I am concerned that the summer will end with a building sense of crisis. You can already see the signs as liquidity issues come to the fore.. (Woodford, H20). None of this is a certain but the odds are exploding.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1147878009870983169.html

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Inverse #HeadAndShoulders in #Gold: Is It For Real?

Gold price chart, monthly. stockcharts.com

The Inverse Head And Shoulders Pattern Of The Gold Price: Is It For Real?

John Navin

It may be one of the oldest technical analysis patterns in the world and here it is once again, this time on the monthly gold price chart. When the head and shoulders looks upside down -- inverted -- the technical analysis wisdom is that a base has formed and direction of price has changed.

In his classic work on price chart interpretation, Technical Analysis of Financial Markets, John Murphy provides the best, most detailed explanation of the pattern.

Basically, you'll see a low, a rally that fails to exceed the previous high, then a lower low, another rally and then a low that comes in higher than the previous low followed by an extended rally that takes out the neckline formed by the 2 previous highs.

Will #Gold Companies cease their underperforming status?

Shares in gold miners have massively underperformed the S&P 500 index over the past three years, falling 6 per cent, according to the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, compared with a 43 per cent rise for the US benchmark.

Longer term, gold miners have massively underperformed the gold price by a large margin, returning a negative 32 per cent over the past 10 years, compared with a 39 per cent positive return for the SPDR Gold Shares, the largest gold-backed ETF. 

Miners' shares lose their shine 

Gold groups should be enjoying a boom. Geopolitical tensions such as trade wars or Iranian sabre-rattling usually send investors flocking to the yellow metal. But in Canada, the traditional centre for the gold-mining industry, cannabis has instead caught investors' eyes.

The most traded stock in the first quarter by volume on the Toronto Stock Exchange was Aurora Cannabis, while Barrick Gold, the world's second-largest gold miner, languished in fifth place.

This lack of interest in the precious metal can be gauged by the drop off in the amount of money being raised by junior miners in Canada, which hit a record low this year at C$635m, according to Oreninc, which tracks the industry. 

See the whole article here: Gold groups eye consolidation to revive fortunes by Henry Sanderson May 29, 2019 3:00 am https://amp.ft.com/content/13452588-7d5a-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560